Market commentators talk a lot about “late-cycle” market conditions these days. They refer to the kind that prevail after a long expansion, when the economy is running at full throttle and assets are richly priced. This discussion quickly leads to gloom, doom and the nasty R word as in recession. This late-cycle debate is a battleground for two contradictory impulses. On the one hand, it recognizes that we are living the good times: the economy is strong, jobs are plentiful, and companies are humming with activity. Maybe the good times might last a little longer than usual. On the other hand, if it is late in the cycle, so the thinking goes, a recession cannot be far off. Headlines about
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