Why bond yields matter? The first quarter ends with a rally both in equities and in bonds. Equities are sitting on solid gains while yields have tumbled, and the US yield curve has inverted. The 10-year Treasury yield has fallen below that of the three-month Treasury bill and in Germany, yields have turned negative for the first time since 2016. The question is, of course, what do we read out of these rate moves? Yields indicate the markets expectation for future economic growth. Is this now a sign that global economic weakness is temporary or evidence that the expansion since the financial crisis is truly waning is legitimate. The same debate previously occurred in 2015 and early 2016. Then
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