The Bulls & The Three Red Flags
What is in store for Economies and Markets in 2018? Around this time of year, many analysts and fund managers are giving their views. The last time the market consensus was as optimistic as today was shortly before the financial crisis started unfolding. Now, as then, we see a groundswell of optimism: the probability of equities being higher by the end of 2018 is 61%, and that shares will beat bonds is 70%. There is only a 27% chance of a global recession. They are not worrie
Goldilocks for Thanksgiving
As the US sits down to enjoy a long week-end filled with turkey, stuffing and sweet potatoes, we take this opportunity to sit back and review the market’s performance. Barely a day goes by without Wall Street hitting a new record high. The market has kept marching upwards despite all the headlines about the rise of the far right in Europe (remember?), a North Korean nuclear threat, and natural disasters like hurricanes. One indication why the market keeps rising can be found
