A Bank of America poll of global fund managers found that a Republican victory is one of the two great tail risks facing the markets. Investors are generally assumed to favor the Republican candidates, on the grounds that they favor a low tax, less-regulated economy. Interestingly, equity markets have tended to perform more than five percentage points a year higher under Democratic than Republican Presidents. This time, the tail risk stems from the candidate himelf: Donald Trump. In some respects, his approach is line with Republicans; he favors tax cuts and reductions in non-discretionary public spending. In others, he diverges significantly, particularly on free trade. Most of all, the pro
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